Shine’s Spotlight: How to Make the World Add Up by Tim Harford
Tim Harford published this book “How to Make the World Add Up” in 2020, exploring different ways that people should think about numbers and statistics, with a particular emphasis on how you should trust numbers you see in the media. Harford is an economic journalist by training, being a columnist for the Financial Times and writing books such as “The Undercover Economist”. However, since 2007 he has presented a BBC Radio 4 show called “More or Less”, which addresses the accuracy of numbers in the public domain, which he has then expanded upon in this book.
The book is structured as 10 different chapters, with each chapter as a rule for how to think about numbers, ranging from “Demand transparency when the computer says no” to “ Search your feelings”. He had actually finished the majority of the book before the COVID pandemic, but addresses in his introduction how his book became even more pertinent as all of us were looking at graphs, R rates and understanding what on earth exponential growth is while being stuck in our homes during lockdown.
Tim Harford covers some really excellent points which are worth pondering when you come across a statistic. For example, when you come across someone using numbers, examine how it makes you feel. You’re much more likely to make correct decisions about non-emotional things. If someone told you that Mars was 30 million miles away, you are unlikely to give a biased response in addressing whether this fact is right or wrong. However, if someone told you that coffee increases the likelihood of cancer, or a statistic around climate change, you are much more likely to have a biased non-objective response to this. It’s not wrong for a figure to provoke strong emotions in you, it’s just important to note that it has and to accept that may change your response to it.
Harford does a great job at explaining complex ideas that would interest non-technical readers while still being a good read to people who work in data. He has a section exploring the necessity of transparency in algorithms/AI, particularly when these decisions affect human lives, which has come into even more focus since the book was written. He also devotes a whole chapter in citing the importance of national statistics in the success of a country. I can wholeheartedly support this as I used to work at the Office for National Statistics. Their website is great, ranging from the serious and important, to the highly anticipated baby names publication.
Overall, I would definitely recommend this book, particularly people newer to the world of data and statistics, as it will really help people understand some of these fundamentals better. Harford finishes off with a “Golden Rule” around statistics which was “Be Curious”. Always seek deeper understanding about how numbers are made and always keep an open mind, which I think is great advice.